Aurora, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

340
FXUS63 KGID 220455
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1055 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The much anticipated warmup for the next seven days is the
  main message. The warmer weather may set forth some river ice
  movement by the end of next week.

- Precipitation is limited as well for the seven day period.

- Looking just behind the traditional 7 day period, it looks
  like we will turn cooler/colder again in early March and the
  pattern may be more settled for a bit.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Strong, cold surface high pressure continues to move southeast
and away from south central Nebraska and north central Kansas.
It is still pretty chilly but definitely warmer this afternoon
with sunshine across 95% of the area. The exception in the
far southern areas of Rooks, Osborne and Mitchell counties
were pesky mid-clouds associated with a shearing upper low
have lingered. Southwest winds are picking up a bit in the
return flow on the backside of the high.

In the very short run...such as the rest of the afternoon...
that pesky, sheared upper low will shift east across
central and eastern Kansas. The previous heavier snow in
northwest Kansas is long-since done but a small uptick
in mid-level radar returns near Salina suggests a few
flurries are not impossible during the next 2-3 hours.
KanDrive camera right in that area doesn`t suggest flurries
are falling now but not confident enough to fully pull them
now. At any rate, that will wrap up and clouds will clear by
early evening.

The rest of the forecast is focused on the warmer trend.
We finally get above freezing Saturday to start some melt for a
few hours, but Sunday should jump another notch...and Monday
another! Having said that, the southern areas should be warmest
fastest with less snow to melt initially, so that includes
north central Kansas and far southern Nebraska. Somewhat heavier
snow cover across north areas (4" or more) won`t melt too much
Saturday, but more so Sunday. Overnight lows also warm and stay
at or above freeing starting Sunday night. However, I just think
we should not too excited about 60 degrees on Monday over
heavier snow covered areas. I lowered temperatures 5-6 degrees
Monday in those areas and feel like we may not get that warm. We
actually could have some clouds in the afternoon and even
slight cold advection in the afternoon behind a surface trough.
Sunday should shed some light on things about how quickly we
will melt/warm. I didn`t lower Tuesday high temperatures yet
but I think that may be needed with time.

An upper wave and cold front will pass Wednesday. We could
see a few passing showers and slightly cooler temperatures
(still in the 50s), but the main thing we will also notice
is strong winds northwest winds Wednesday/Wednesday evening.
Increased NBM winds and wind gusts as ensembles continue to
suggest 40+ mph wind gusts area likely with the passage of
the front.

Just peaking beyond the routine 7 day forecast period, there
are larger scale changes (MJO and stratospheric levels) which
point toward a brief flex of the polar vortex roughly from
about March 3rd through the 12th. The point is...after the more
mild week ahead, we should be turning cooler and possibly
unsettled for 7-10 days in early March. Looking even further,
the MJO cycling through phases along with general weather
pattern timing change timing both steer toward a potential
warmer last half of March leading into astronomical spring.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions are expected throughout the full period with a
few mid to high level clouds staring to fill in Saturday
evening (mainly after 3z). Steady 5-15kt winds start out of the
southwest overnight with gusts as high as 20kt possible. These
winds should retain through the rests of the day Saturday,
swinging more towards the west-southwest over the next few hours
(6-12z) as a surface high pressure center continues to exit the
area.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 212 PM CST Fri Feb 21 2025

Just bringing some attention to the potential for ice movement
on local rivers about one week from now. It is very hard to
predict when ice will break/move but usually after 4 or so days
50+ degree highs and lows at or above freezing, ice tends to
start moving. Add in some stronger winds mid/late next week to
add to the mechanical type force impacting the ice, and it just
seems like the we should be ready. Thankfully, precipitation is
limited in the next 7 days. We will be watching the Platte and
Loup basins closely late next week, though minor issues on
other rivers/streams are still possible.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Moritz
AVIATION...Stump
HYDROLOGY...Moritz